Sunday forecast: Mostly sunny and Scottie

Scheffler takes 4-shot lead into final round; Li, Fitzpatrick, McIlroy have 'half a chance'

Scottie Scheffler stands alone as the man to beat at Portrush Sunday (Peter Byrne/PA Images via Getty Images)

PORTRUSH, Northern Ireland — One of the curious expressions associated with this week’s Open at Royal Portrush has come in the daily weather forecasts provided by the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological service.

“Low confidence on details” has often been the de facto disclaimer on every longer range weather prediction throughout the week at Portrush. But even the Met Office is seeing things more clearly for Sunday’s final round.

“Plenty of dry and fine weather expected Sunday. A small chance of rain or showers developing,” was the rather confident headline on the official forecast issued Saturday evening that included no hesitant qualifiers. “An increasing risk of seeing cloudier conditions and some rain through the evening, but again probably remaining largely, if not completely dry until after sunset.”

Any “low confidence” on this Sunday of the 153rd Open Championship will reside with the 69 players on the final round tee sheets not named Scottie Scheffler. While, like the weather in Ireland, there are certainly no guarantees on who will hoist the Claret Jug on Sunday evening, this tournament is the world No. 1’s to lose.

Scheffler built himself a four-shot lead over China’s Haotong Li with a bogey-free 4-under 67 on Saturday, igniting a slow start with an eagle-birdie combo on 7 and 8 and deftly extracting himself from whatever trouble he found himself in — especially with exceptional par saves on 11 and 14. He’s kept challengers at bay by gaining a tournament-best 7.87 strokes relative to the field in putting and he’s managed to birdie the terrifying par-3 16th called “Calamity Corner” every single day.

“If you look at the first six holes, I felt like I did some things good enough to make a few birdies and wasn’t able to capitalize, and then all of a sudden on 7 and 8 I get three shots in two holes,” Scheffler said. “It’s more just a matter of trying to make the best of the opportunities that you can get, and sometimes I’m good at it, sometimes not as good.

“I think the card could look stress-free, but I had two really nice par saves on the back nine that were key. I made a nice 8-ish-footer on 11, another one on 14, so two really important putts I felt like. I think anytime you can keep a clean card around a major championship, you’re going to be having a pretty good day.”

Scheffler sits at 14-under par with rounds of 68, 64 and 67, with Li joining him in the final pairing at 10-under par while England’s Matthew Fitzpatrick is in third at 9-under after an uneven even-par 71 on Saturday playing with Scheffler.

Local favorite Rory McIlroy heads the crowd tied fourth six shots off the lead at 8-under, with Tyrrell Hatton, Harris English and last week’s Scottish Open winner Chris Gotterup all hoping they can shoot something low on Sunday and get a little help from the leader who has never blown a 54-hole lead in any of his three major wins.

“He’s playing like Scottie,” McIlroy said when asked about Scheffler’s performance. “I don’t think it’s a surprise. Everyone has seen the way he has played or plays over the last two or three years. He’s just so solid. He doesn’t make mistakes.”

All eyes are on Rory McIlroy trying to reel in the world No. 1 (Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)

McIlroy had the Northern Irish crowds rollicking on Saturday as he opened with three birdies in the first four holes, drained a 56-footer for eagle on 12 and shot a 5-under 66 that he said feels “like I’ve at least given myself half a chance tomorrow.”

However …

“Scottie Scheffler is — it’s inevitable,” McIlroy added. “Even when he doesn’t have his best stuff … he’s improved so much with his putter. Yeah, it’s going to be tough to catch him (Sunday) if he keeps playing the way he does. …

“I’ve got a chance. I need to get off to a great start like I did today, and if I can do that, anything can happen. I’ve come from a few shots behind before at big tournaments and was able to win. If I can get off to one of those hot starts again, maybe Scottie feels a little bit of that a couple of groups behind, and you never know. Scottie is the best player in the world right now. I think it’s clear for everyone to see. He’s just consistently so good each and every week he tees it up, so it’s going to be a tall order to be able to catch him tomorrow. But I’m going to look forward to the challenge.”

So is Scheffler, and he has no gameplan to do anything differently on Sunday than what has already gotten him this far to collecting a fourth major and the third piece of a career grand slam.

“I’m excited for the challenge of tomorrow,” Scheffler said. “Winning major championships is not an easy task, and I’ve put myself in a good position. Going into tomorrow I’m going to step up there on the first tee and I’m going to be trying to get the ball in the fairway, and when I get to the second shot I’m going to be trying to get that ball on the green. There’s not really too much else going on.”

Even the Met Office would agree on the degree of confidence in Scheffler doing just that is high and the confidence on anyone catching him is not zero percent but it’s certainly low.

Defending Open champion Xander Schauffele certainly doesn’t hold out much hope. He had a great day on Thursday, but he knew it was not nearly enough.

To catch Scheffler sitting comfortably seven shots in front of Schauffele’s 7-under total that has him alone in eighth, the 31-year-old will need a combination of a very low score and some tremendous luck.

That’s something that the current Champion Golfer of the Year does not see in his future.

“I’m so far back, who knows with the weather and whatnot,” Schauffele said after shooting a 5-under 66 on Saturday that vaulted him nine spots up the leaderboard but only picked up one shot on Scheffler. “I believe in myself and what I can do. So just blackout, hopefully. No luck boxing, blackout — there’s your headline, and try to shoot something and give myself a lot of opportunities.”

“Luck boxing” is what Schauffele calls his back nine on Friday when his game was off the wheels but he somehow found a way to finish with a 2-under 69.

On Saturday making two eagle and two birdies, Schauffele had more of a “blackout” round, which in his vernacular means being in your own world.

“It’s like when a guy is just — when I watch Scottie play a lot, he just looks blacked out to me, just doing his thing,” Schauffele said of the world No. 1. “He’s just in his own world and nothing’s going to bother him. He gets to that place often, which is a good thing for him.”

Scheffler would need to have a different kind of blackout to release his grip on the Claret Jug.

“I think it would be silly to say that you can never let your mind wander, but I think most of what I can control is the time I have when we’re thinking about the shot and when I’m over the ball, and most of that’s just being committed to what I’m doing,” Scheffler said. “So, I’m not thinking about wind, I’m not thinking about how the ball is going to bounce. I have a picture of what I want to do, and that’s what I’m committed to trying to make happen.”