Masters by the numbers
Second shots, Nos. 1 & 2, quality rookies ... and Captain Tiger on tap?
World No. 1 and 2022 Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (Chloe Knott/Augusta National)
Justin Ray has one of the smartest statistical minds in the golf business, lending his expertise on the relevant numbers inside the game to NBC/Golf Channel, The Athletic and various other outlets. The Daily Drive asked Justin to offer up his perspective on what it takes to win the Masters this week and its principal figures.
Second-shot course
The adage that has been lock-and-key when analyzing Augusta National for generations has been matched by the empirical data now available in golf’s modern, advanced statistics era. Seven of the last nine Masters champions have ranked sixth or better that week in strokes gained approach, with those shots accounting for more than 35% of a player’s overall strokes gained versus the field. Since 2015, Masters winners have had positive strokes gained approach in 81% of their rounds that week, higher than the overall rate across all venues on the PGA Tour in that same time span.
Which Rory will show up?
Speaking of which, Rory McIlroy enjoyed his best single strokes gained approach week in a PGA Tour event in nearly five years at the Valero Texas Open. At TPC San Antonio, McIlroy’s average proximity to the hole on approach shots from 125 to 150 yards was more than five feet better than his season average entering the week. Maintaining that improved precision would help Rory keep crooked numbers off his scorecard: his 10 double bogeys or worse this season on the PGA Tour are already three more than he had all of last season. Rory tied for the field lead in bogey avoidance last week in his third-place finish.
Rory McIlroy still searching for Augusta key (Joe Toth/Augusta National)
Stripe Show Scottie
The ball striking chasm between Scottie Scheffler and the rest of the men’s game has continued its expansion this spring. Since the beginning of the 2022 season, Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in greens in regulation, strokes gained approach and scoring average. The distance between Scheffler’s strokes gained tee-to-green average this season and number two on the list — Xander Schauffele — is wider than the gap between number 20 and 109. When Scheffler putts slightly above average, he’s become extremely difficult to beat: over the last three seasons, Scottie has four tournaments where he’s averaged a stroke or more gained on the greens per round. He won all four tournaments.
Rare pair of debutants
It’s difficult to find a more unique, accomplished pair of players making their Masters debuts than Wyndham Clark and Ludvig Åberg. Clark will be the first player to compete in his Masters debut as the reigning U.S. Open champion since Orville Moody in 1970. Åberg, who in Rome became the first to ever compete in a Ryder Cup before ever playing in a major, is second in birdie average on the PGA Tour since making his pro debut — trailing only Scheffler.
Masters 2024 starting groups and times
Oh captain, my captain?
Tiger Woods is seemingly the only choice to be the next U.S. Ryder Cup captain. At least he’s the favorite for a job that really has no other obvious candidates for Bethpage Black since Phil Mickelson made what’s perceived as a heel turn to LIV Golf. But the Masters is about to start, and no American captain has been selected for the 2025 Ryder Cup while Europe has already named Luke Donald to helm for a second time.
Woods was asked late last year about his interest and said it wasn’t the time to talk about it. He said his involvement with the PGA Tour Policy Board took precedent.
Well, that’s still a time-consuming gig and plenty still needs to be decided. And when asked about his interest in the captain’s gig on Tuesday at the Masters, Woods deferred once again.
But he didn’t say no.
“We’re still talking about it,’’ said Woods with a smile, noting that he would be speaking to Seth Waugh, the CEO of the PGA of America, whose organization determines the captain.
“It’s something that Seth and I are going to sit back and talk about it after this event,’’ Woods said Tuesday. “I said I’m going to be busy for a couple weeks, so let me focus on getting through this week and hopefully getting another jacket, and then we can sit back and talk about it next week.’’
Tiger Woods in Masters press building (Joe Toth/Augusta National)
In truth, the U.S. really doesn’t need a captain until the one-year mark, which would be in September. While the U.S. team is earning points this year, it is only at the Players, Masters, PGA, U.S. Open and Open. The new captain can, if he desires, request changes for 2024 qualifying criteria via the Ryder Cup committee.
At this point, it makes sense to name Woods the captain for the next two Ryder Cups. Let him carry the load with help from assistant captains, of which there are plenty. Adare Manor in Ireland for 2027 also makes tons of sense for Woods even if he skips this one, especially considering his relationship with Adare Manor owner J.P. McManus
And what if Woods doesn’t take the reins at Bethpage? Well, the U.S. team needs a backup choice, and why not Stewart Cink?
U.S. assistant Stewart Cink with captain Zach Johnson in Rome (Brendan Moran/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
The five-time Ryder Cup player and 2009 Open champion was an outlier pick as one of Zach Johnson’s assistants in Rome. And Cink enjoyed the experience enough and took plenty out of it.
“I do want to be the captain and think I can be. But with all due respect to Tiger Woods, I think it’s up to him,’’ Cink said late last year. “I haven’t been told anything. And no one has mentioned one thing to me. But I know I can do it. And I know I would love to do it. Especially after being an assistant at the last Ryder Cup.
“Knowing what it’s like to be there again after having basically nothing to do with the Ryder Cup — not by any choice of my own — for the last 13 years … to get back into it, really got my juices flowing again.’’
Woods was the winning playing captain at the 2019 Presidents Cup and assisted Davis Love III in his 2016 Ryder Cup captaincy while also being an assistant to Steve Stricker at the 2017 Presidents Cup. He last participated in a Ryder Cup when he played for the U.S. in 2018.
Tiger was not at the 2021 Ryder Cup nor last year’s in Rome and sidestepped questions about being the next Ryder Cup captain at the Hero World Challenge in December.
“Right now there’s too much at stake with our tour to think about a Ryder Cup right now,’’ said Woods, referencing his role as a member of the PGA Tour Policy Board and its attempt to strike a deal with the DP World Tour and the Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia. “We have to get this done and we have to be focused on this right now. The players and everyone involved understands that this is an issue we need to focus on.’’
The European side named Donald to return to a second captaincy after the resounding 16 ½ to 11 ½ victory at Marco Simone Golf Club. The PGA of America typically names its captain in the spring.
Like all who were involved on the U.S. side, Cink is still struggling with the enormity of the defeat in Rome.
“It’s been tough trying to figure out what the heck happened,’’ Cink said of the U.S. losing all four opening sessions and falling behind by five points — the final margin of victory — on the first day. “The first session, the team, captains, we thought we had such an iron-clad lineup.. And we didn’t. But I don’t think it was really lineup related. For some reason, our guys came out and didn’t play like we were ready to go out there and take the thing I home. Europe did.
“They were just somehow ready to go and our guys weren’t as ready. I don’t know how. I’ve thought about it a lot and what I’d do differently if I could do that Ryder Cup over again. I would change a couple of things. And it had nothing to do with Zach. If I ever got a chance to captain overseas, I’d definitely want to have some long meetings with the PGA about some things.’’
Asked to elaborate, Cink said: “I don’t want to talk about the details. It’s nothing groundbreaking. I just want our players to be ready and to hit the ground running over there. And to be mentally and emotionally freed up. You almost have to be freed up to lose. Feel like it’s okay to lose. Europe seems to play like they think it’s okay if they don’t win. And it helps. And it makes them free and let it all go. I remember when I played I felt like I had something to lose. I’ve been there.’’